Posted by: John | October 9, 2009

33% swing Tories to LD in Penrith

Just heard that Elissa Robertson has won the Penrith West by-election. I could tell from the work I did that she is a hard worker on local issues and well done to the team up there in Cumbria.

Result last time:

Ind 324 = 45.25%

Con 276 = 38.55%

Lab 116 = 16.20%

October 8th result

LD 387 = 51.74%

Con 157 = 20.99%

BNP 102 = 13.64%

Ind 58 = 7.75%

Lab 26 = 3.48%

Green 18 = 2.41%

Thus a 34% swing from Tory to LD

Thus, even on a day with a big Cameron speech – where we do the work on the ground with a big clear strong campaign we can win Labour and Conservative voters – and crucially NEW voters who were erstwhile non-voters. This phenomena  was identified in the campaign and they voted in their numbers.

Everyone in target seats should try and identify these new voters ensuring that you use EARS to check against marked registers. This phenomena I picked up in Cheadle & Gatley by-election too where they came out in force.

Our next job is to find out who these people are and why they are turning to politics and more specifically to us in our target areas.

Once again, well done Elissa!

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Responses

  1. Here is the result.

    EDEN Penrith West

    LD 387 51.7 %
    Con 157 21.0 %
    BNP 102 13.6 %
    Ind 58 7.8%
    Lab 26 3.5%
    Grn 18 2.4%

    Stunning figures and a tribute to the candidate who worked very hard.

    But: The Tories and BNP also worked it. So how did we win?

    Nothing new, just the same old:

    1. Best candidate
    2. Best team
    3. Best campaign

    Remember that the Tories have a reasonably presentable top team but when you get down to the local activists they are not as strong as we sometimes think.

    • I agree with all that – I’ve amended the results. I’m just trying to understand as a `technician` these new voters as they are a huge boon to us for putting us over the top in marginal areas and just to give others a boost who don’t live in target areas that perhaps there’s a point in starting up or going to that target LD/Con marginal. The Conservatives can be defeated.

      You are totally right of course – without the three things of at least a good candidate, team and campaign these new voters won’t be fished out. 🙂


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