Posted by: John | July 3, 2009

Three bell-weather by-elections?

Not to disparage the huge efforts required to fend off the challenges of other parties there have been three interesting indicators in seats that will prove difficult defences.

1. West Didsbury – although this was a `safe` Lib Dem seat it was interesting to note that after pouring the same amount of literature and after pouring as many resources into it this as us, Labour went up 2% with the Lib Dems going up 9%.

What’s informative is that the `intellectual liberal left` stayed with the Lib Dems, a bulwark of the vote in Manchester Withington.

2. Stepping Hill – Maggie Clay (RIP) made this into a safe seat and I think it was that that meant the Lib Dems fell back 6% although the Conservatives also fell back 1%. The Tories threw everything but the kitchen sink at it but couldn’t pull out a victory. Again the `professional middle classes` stuck with the Lib Dems, ignored Labour and the Conservatives. The Lib Dems also kept their votes `on the terraces` in Great Moor and similar people in other parts of the ward ignored Labour (again).

Surely, a fillip for our campaign in Cheadle?

3. Nonsuch – it would be interesting to hear what local campaigners thought. Happy smiles I would think with the Tory vote going down and ours going up in such a marginal seat as Sutton & Cheam.

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